Intel predicts autonomous driving will spur new “Passenger Economy” worth $7T by 2050

Intel predicts autonomous driving will spur new “Passenger Economy” worth $7T by 2050

2 June 2017

Intel Corporation released the findings from a new study that explores the yet-to-be-realized economic potential when today’s drivers become idle passengers. Coined the “Passenger Economy” by Intel and prepared by analyst firm Strategy Analytics, the study predicts an explosive economic trajectory growing from $800 billion in 2035 to $7 trillion by 2050.

New digital business models ushered in by personal computing, the internet, ubiquitous connectivity and smartphones gave birth to whole new economies. Autonomous driving will do the same, Intel says.

Companies should start thinking about their autonomous strategy now Less than a decade ago, no one was talking about the potential of a soon-to-emerge app or sharing economy because no one saw it coming. This is why we started the conversation around the Passenger Economy early, to wake people up to the opportunity streams that will emerge when cars become the most powerful mobile data generating devices we use and people swap driving for riding.

—Intel CEO Brian Krzanich

Intel and Strategy Analytics suggest that Autonomous driving and smart city technologies will enable the new Passenger Economy, gradually reconfiguring entire industries and inventing new ones thanks to the time and “cognitive surplus” it will unlock.

The new report frames the value of the economic opportunity through both a consumer and business lens and begins to build use cases designed to enable decision-makers to develop actionable change strategies.

Autonomous technology will drive change across a range of industries and define a new landscape, the first green shoots of which will appear in the business-to-business sector. The emergence of pilotless vehicle options will first appear in developed markets and will reinvent the package delivery and long-haul transportation sectors. This will relieve driver shortages around the world and account for two-thirds of initial projected revenues.

—study co-author Harvey Cohen, president, Strategy Analytics

The research firm further points out that autonomously operated vehicle commercialization will gain steam by 2040—generating an increasingly large share of the projected value and heralding the emergence of instantaneously personalized services.

Key report highlights include:

  • Business use of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is expected to generate $3 trillion in revenues, or 43% of the total passenger economy.

  • Consumer use of Mobility-as-a-Service offerings is expected to account for $3.7 trillion in revenue, or nearly 55% of the total passenger economy.

  • $200 billion of revenue is expected to be generated from rising consumer use of new innovative applications and services that will emerge as pilotless vehicle services expand and evolve.

  • Conservatively, 585,000 lives can be saved due to self-driving vehicles in the era of the Passenger Economy from 2035 to 2045.

  • Self-driving vehicles are expected to free more than 250 million hours of consumers’ commuting time per year in the most congested cities in the world.

  • Reductions in public safety costs related to traffic accidents could amount to more than $234 billion over the Passenger Economy era from 2035-2045.

The Passenger Economy report was sponsored by Intel and developed by Strategy Analytics.

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